Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 150.024968 180.628945 218.236835 268.672964 335.841693 4.241721e+02 5.525762e+02
2025-03-09 109.853969 143.498372 189.867081 260.975181 372.279060 5.496655e+02 8.777446e+02
2025-03-16 87.422494 120.283190 169.099969 251.222574 395.992595 6.648453e+02 1.280166e+03
2025-03-23 79.413461 114.667512 170.906878 274.611360 481.664100 9.384829e+02 2.305262e+03
2025-03-30 70.219449 104.915716 163.181505 278.261047 531.655944 1.178230e+03 3.673927e+03
2025-04-06 64.138716 98.850303 159.967499 288.825972 601.532866 1.532621e+03 6.417003e+03
2025-04-13 57.408214 90.456960 150.670168 283.921861 632.439402 1.810124e+03 1.004525e+04
2025-04-20 55.094284 89.378008 154.754905 309.351389 759.246586 2.604076e+03 2.442631e+04
2025-04-27 52.602630 87.523103 156.841167 330.907750 891.462826 3.699768e+03 7.131803e+04
2025-05-04 49.951721 84.936168 156.843287 347.340410 1021.427433 5.161279e+03 2.866044e+05
2025-05-11 47.211513 81.772276 154.967374 358.221446 1142.218641 7.045382e+03 2.403318e+06
2025-05-18 44.422119 78.138036 151.371218 363.142031 1245.348543 9.347736e+03 1.156479e+09
2025-05-25 40.944520 72.840635 143.425758 353.841349 1284.161788 1.137460e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 37.863691 68.056538 136.022400 344.422353 1319.494732 1.385661e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 34.938559 63.292925 127.959384 330.616819 1322.278581 1.604894e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 34.530210 63.899419 133.320471 364.541677 1653.030488 3.245746e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 32.894725 61.607006 130.869542 369.871232 1811.300777 5.043039e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 31.782336 60.366858 130.999136 385.328297 2078.721363 9.745359e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 29.974092 57.349979 125.851526 378.144787 2151.726793 1.416157e+05 NaN
2025-07-13 29.735440 57.953597 130.858780 415.568102 2734.224829 6.131590e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 29.260544 57.941275 134.131982 447.619553 3383.155035 6.102076e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 28.571910 57.334758 135.559368 472.248302 4054.472080 4.501163e+10 NaN
2025-08-03 27.714127 56.222308 135.271693 488.647334 4698.722932 NaN NaN